Greetings...your Fearless One is back with your first winter-weather related statement of the meteorological/climatological fall! The cool and relatively dry 2023 Canaan summer (June, July, & August) looks to be sliding into fall (Sep. 1 through Nov. 30) with the hottest week of the year! The observed summer temperature was 63.2° F, 1.6° F below the 1991-2020, 30-year three-month average. It was the coolest summer in 15 years (since 2008) despite it reaching a sizzling 87°F one afternoon in July. Rainfall was 13.41 inches, 2.15 inches (14%) below average. It was the driest summer in 9 years (since 2014). Today (9-1-23) is the first day of official "meteorological/climatological" fall (in the Northern Hemisphere). Media claims that cite the "official" start of fall as being the September equinox are misguided. While there are two definitions of fall (meteorological & astronomic), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the nation's lead (official) federal government agency source for weather and climate data. NOAA recognizes the meteorological/climatological seasons as their official definition. All NOAA weather and climate archives are computed based on the calendar month/season approach. Their discussion and reasoning on the subject is found on their website at: https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/climate/changing-seasons With summer officially behind us, it's almost time to start thinking fall. Ironically, the first week of climatological fall looks this year like it may include several daily record setting maximum temperatures next week. There is a good chance it could end up being the warmest week of this year! Forecast guidance suggests maybe up to five consecutive days (starting Sunday) of 80 to 85°F on the valley floor! Now for the primary subject of this discussion. The forecast upcoming strong El Niño winter and what that suggests historically for snowfall in the Canaan High Country... Preface: As you may know by now, your Fearless One does not issue seasonal long-range winter weather forecasts. I leave that up the the Woolly Bear caterpillars, the Farmer's Almanac, and plenty of other prognosticators with more guts than me. However, there's already been plenty of buzz in the media about what the upcoming strong El Niño forecast holds for this winter's weather. Therefore, I thought it would be interesting to analyze seasonal snowfall totals for moderate-to-strong El Niño winters in Canaan Valley to see what impacts, if any, are seen with this important phase of Pacific Ocean equatorial water temperatures. While weak El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (both La Niña and El Niño) have marginal impacts if any, on the global circulation and hence the surface weather where we live, work, play, and grow our food, moderate-to-strong episodes of both El Niño and El Niño do have detectable global, regional, and local impacts. Summary of Results: A review of total seasonal Canaan Valley (floor) snowfall for 15 moderate-to-strong El Niño winters for the last 72 years (1950/51 through the 2022/23 winters) reveals an average snowfall of 140 inches for these El Niño winters and 130 inches for the remaining other 57 ENSO phase winters (weak El Niño, Neutral & La Niña). Thus, on average, moderate-to-strong El Niño winters exhibit 10 inches more (+8%) snowfall in a season than do non-El Niño winters. Consistent with a previous study's findings, the updated analysis continues to show; a) high snowfall variability in moderate-to-strong El Niño seasonal snowfalls, including some of the lowest and highest seasonal snowfall totals in the entire period of analysis, and, b) low statistical correlations between the two (predictor (El Niño winters) and predict-and (seasonal Canaan snowfall totals). Statistical correlations between moderate-to-strong El Niño winters and total Canaan seasonal snowfall are weak due to the small sample size of these El Niño winters (only 15) and the high variability in snowfall amounts during these events. Using only strong El Niños for the study (only 7 cases) weakens correlations even further and doesn't change the overall results significantly. The weak correlations found here makes winter snowfall forecasting for Canaan Valley and the surrounding WV High Country during forecast moderate-to-strong El Niño winters of limited value. Yes, the odds are tilted slightly in favor of above average total seasonal snowfall. There is also a known increase in the risk for large east coastal snowstorms/blizzards that also can impact the WV High Country during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters but it's hardly a slam-dunk with the high variability in the historical data. DETAILED DISCUSSION: The NWS's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting (as of mid-August 2023), with very high probability (95%), moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions to last through this coming 2023/24 winter. With that said, let's examine what differences, if any, are seen on total seasonal snowfall amounts in moderate-to-strong El Niño winters in the Canaan Valley during this specific phase of the Pacific Ocean ENSO. To answer this question, I assessed the last 72 years of historical seasonal total snowfall records (1950/51 through 2022-23) from three NWS official published Cooperative weather/climate stations (COOP) on Canaan Valley's floor in the more developed south end of the Valley. All three stations operated within a mile of Deerfield Village. All three NWS stations data sets were combined (threaded together so-to-speak) to create one continuous climate data record for the Valley floor. All three stations were/are professionally sited, instrumented, and maintained by the NWS. Observations are taken by NWS trained volunteers graciously providing their complimentary service to the nation. While the official longest consecutive Canaan climate record starts in 1944, the study is limited to the 1950/51 winter season and later as 1950 is the first season ENSO phases are categorized by the NWS. There are three basic states to ENSO as defined by the NWS. They are: - El Niño: 0.9° F or greater warmer than average equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, - La Nina (0.9° F or greater cooler than average equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures), and, - Neutral ENSO: (little deviation (-0.8° F to +0.8° F) from average equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. El Niño ("the boy" in English), the subject phase of this study, is the Peruvian Spanish name given to warmer-than-average equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures periodically observed off Peru's Pacific Coast. It's occurrence has been documented for centuries to correlate to extremely damaging heavy rains/floods along the normally arid, northern coastal deserts there. Studies over the last half of the 1900's found each of the three ENSO states can have different mpacts at much broader, even global atmospheric circulation scale, especially with moderate-or-stronger El Niño and La Nina ENSO phases. El Niño impacts are basically driven by the ocean releasing large amounts of heat from the abnormally warm equatorial Pacific Ocean waters into the atmosphere above, which in turn, can alter the planetary circulation all the way up to the jet stream (~20,000 ft.) which to a large degree, also controls surface weather. A current description of the developing El Niño from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, the parent federal agency of NWS) follows: "El Niño-the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern—continues across the tropical Pacific Ocean in early August 2023. Odds that it will last through winter increased from 90 to 95 percent compared to last month's [July] forecast, and the chance of a strong event is now above 60 percent. The strength of the event doesn't reliably predict the strength of its impacts, but it does increase the chances that some level of impacts will occur in places with a history of ENSO influences". As mentioned previously, I updated the seasonal snowfall totals portion of a previous Canaan study (2015, Vogel & Leffler) for this discussion. The updated results include total winter snowfall for moderate-to-strong El Niño's from the 1950/51 through 2022/23 winters. This adds two additional moderate-to-strong El Niño winters to the still rather small (now 15 winters) sample size, increasing the statistical validity of the new findings a bit. Results are NOT a Fearless Forecast of snowfall amounts in the Canaan for the upcoming 2023-24 winter. They are simply a historical climatological assessment of how seasonal snowfall amounts for El Niño phase winters and non-El Niño phase winters vary. Thus, knowing a moderate-to-strong El Niño phase is forecast to occur with high confidence through the following winter is only minimally useful as a total seasonal snowfall forecast tool in the Canaan High Country. The findings here suggest other non-ENSO factors also affect weather patterns and snowfall amounts in the Canaan WV High Country area. Other such wild cards include; greenhouse global warming, fall Siberian snow cover extent, the North Atlantic Oscillation, overall world and Great Lakes surface water temperature patterns, direction of prevailing jet stream winds, etc. How all these factors and others still to be identified interact is still a mystery and the subject of great debate. Their relationships hold the key to improved long-range seasonal weather and climate forecasts. I apologize for being long-winded with this discussion. I tried to keep it as short and concise as possible while still providing the necessary context of this rather complex and still not fully understood subject. Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)