ISSUED 9:55 am TUESDAY (1-24-23) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2-Day Snowfall Verification (sum of Mon. & Tue am NWS reports) Fearless Snowfall Forecast: 2-to-6 inches Observed Snowfall (avg. of 2 NWS am observer totals): 3.1 inches While the observed snowfall for this event came in within your Fearless forecast range, it was on the low, under-performing end as with all previous snowfalls this winter. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECAST DISCUSSION: The WV High Country is still on track for a snowy upcoming period through next Sunday. There should be plenty of chances for accumulating snow. However, mixed precipitation and rain Wednesday will hold down snowpack (on the ground) growth. With that said, a major change in the outlook is the lack of the second major Arctic outbreak of the winter next weekend. The King Kong wall of warm air in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea has not retreated/broken down as much as earlier guidance suggested. This strong, persistent feature will yet again continue to hamper cold northern Canada/Arctic air from penetrating farther south and east through Sunday, as it has done most of the winter here. The next big weather-maker is a powerful disturbance expected to take shape today in TX and then race northeast to Lake Erie by Thursday morning. If this track materializes (likely), it becomes yet another "inland runner" in this winter's endless parade of these rascals. Inland runners, as you now know, typically translate into rain outs on the front end followed by upslope snows on the back end here. However, this system may have enough seasonally chilly sub-freezing air still in place over the WV High Country for the precipitation to start briefly as snow. As warmer air is drawn northward on stiff south winds ahead of the intensifying system to the west, above-freezing air will encroach at cloud level first, eventually reaching down to the surface. This will result in a snow, to mix of snow-and-sleet, to freezing rain, and then plain rain Wednesday. The tail end of this fast, northeast-moving system should feature a moderate upslope snow event that should last about 24-hours into early Friday morning. After the upslope mountain snow flow diminishes Friday morning, Saturday should be relatively settled weather with seasonal temperatures. Sunday, yet another weaker disturbance moving in from the west may generate some more light upslope snow or rain. The fresh powder and seasonable temperatures (morning 20's and afternoon 30's F) Thursday on should combine to produce another splendid winter recreation weekend over the WV High Country. Snow-making opportunities will come in pulses this week, not 24/7 but still favorable during the colder nighttime hours minimally. Now for the detailed Fearless day-to-day forecast through Sunday. FEARLESS FORECAST: Tuesday: Settled during the day with snow arriving early Wednesday morning. Morning 20's F, afternoon 30's F. New snow by 7 am Wednesday morning (NWS observer reporting time): Trace-to-1 inch. Wednesday: A complex forecast....cloudy with snow arriving between 3-and-6 am, mixing with sleet and freezing rain and then changing to plain light rain by around noon. Light rain/drizzle continues into evening with only a quarter-inch or so of liquid precipitation. Temps upper 20's F around sunrise, gradually rise to above-freezing by late morning, steadily climbing further to about 40 °F by early evening before the cold front passes through between 6 and 8 pm. Snow/sleet accumulations of a trace-to-2 inches before the changeover to plain rain. I expect minor icing before the changeover to plain rain and above freezing temps melt any minor accumulations off. Nonetheless, travel with caution as minor changes in temps can create havoc! The cold front ushering in below freezing temps at all levels around midnight Thursday. A lull in significant precipitation behind the cold front should be followed by about 24 hours of upslope snow to develop, beginning between 2 and 4 am Thursday morning. This second period of snow should yield another 1-to-2 inches of new snow by 7 am Thursday. This is in addition to whatever fell Wednesday morning. Total new snow by 7 am Thursday (includes sum of both Wed. & Thu. early morning snowfalls): 1-to-4 inches. Thursday: A wintry day with strong gusty winds, pulses of upslope snow (some Great Lakes moisture may contribute), and blowing and drifting snow. Morning temps mid-to-upper 20's F, are flat-lined, rising little, if any. Winds gusting between 40-and-45 MPH gradually subsiding during the day, produce wind chills around +10 F and blowing and drifting snow in open exposed areas. Upslope snow tapers off early Friday morning. New snow by 7 am Friday morning (NWS observer reporting time): 2-to-4 inches Friday: Upslope snow tapers off ending by late morning. Morning, upper teens to low 20's F, afternoon only mid-20's F. New snow by 7 am Saturday morning (NWS observer reporting time): Trace-to-1 inch Total 4-day (reporting time) snowfall Wednesday-through-Saturday morning: 3-to-10 inches. This total is what I will issue verification for (forecast versus observed amounts). Note the wide range in amounts reflects the large uncertainty in the Fearless forecast snowfall amounts (low confidence). Tighter ranges reflect higher confidence. Saturday: Settled. Morning 20's F, afternoon mid-30's F. Sunday: Cloudy. Light rain-or-snow possible. Morning 20's, afternoon 30's F. Next update as needed with changing conditions. Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)