ISSUED 9:30 am EST, WEDNESDAY 12-21-22 DISCUSSION: Note: Snowfall amounts for this upcoming event are extremely uncertain at this time and subject to wild revisions... Old Man Winter's a'coming to town, whether he's an invited guest or not!. His visit will feature a two phases as anticipated several days ago but, despite being only 24 hours from Phase 1 showtime, there remain numerous large uncertainties in the Fearless snowfall forecast. My confidence in details remains extremely low for both Phases of this one-two punch. As such, expect frequent updates in Fearless snowfall amounts as this situation evolves further as snowfall amounts are far from a slam-dunk. One thing looks as certain as it gets in the weather bis. Old Man Winter's gonna huff, and puff, and try to blow your house down. And if that don't work, backup plan B is to freeze you out with low air temps and especially dangerous low wind chills. Yes, some post-frontal upslope snow Friday will put icing on his arrival cake to boot. Phase One features mixed snow/sleet/freezing rain changing to plain rain as an east coast disturbance tracks northeast along the coast. This scenario is similar to the icing storm last week. Cold air dammed up east of the Allegheny Front raises the chances of a heavy snow event at lower elevations to the east like Seneca Rocks, Petersburg, Moorefield, Keyser, and north to Cumberland, MD and beyond. The fly in the ointment here is numerous models suggest not only a very sharp gradient in snowfall between Backbone Mountain and the Allegheny Front and Dolly Sods with this slug of precipitation, amounts vary significantly with how far west (again) the mild, above freezing air advances. Guidance suggests 1 inch or less snow west of Backbone to up to 7 inches of snow on the eastern side of Dolly Sods and the Allegheny Front all the way down to the southern end of Spruce Mountain (and Spruce Knob). Farther west, sleet, freezing rain, and then plain rain look likely to increase as one proceeds farther west of the Front on the high ground. That's a very tight gradient of 6 inches of snow difference in only 15 miles as the crow flies! With this tight gradient and differing amounts, I am simply taking an average snowfall of several of my preferred models. I really don't know which one will preform best. The joker in the deck with cold air damming setups is always how fast the cold air retreats/erodes with milder, above-freezing air advancing from the south and how quickly the precipitation breaks out. That can be a very tough call, and is here yet again. Phase Two is the main act of the show with show time between 4 and 8 am Friday as it looks now. That's when the much-heralded, intense Arctic Cold Front roars (literally) across the Canaan and surrounding WV High Country from west-to-east. You will know it when it arrives. Strong winds, plummeting temps, and some slope snow will all combine to possibly create blizzard conditions and dangerous travel for several hours Friday morning. The joker in this deck is snowfall amounts. Some guidance suggest the frigid air behind the front quickly dries out, limiting what moisture the upslope mountain snow-making machine has to work with. Other guidance is much more robust with upslope snow continuing into early Christmas Day. Again, I have averaging several preferred models to come up with a first wild guess at snowfall amounts with Phase Two (see detailed forecast below). Due to the large discrepancies in snowfall between model guidance, I also have very low confidence in Fearless snowfall amounts for Phase 2 at this time. Now for the detailed very low snowfall confidence Fearless Forecast. DETAILED FEARLESS FORECAST: Thursday: Cloudy and cold with snow, sleet, and or/freezing rain, changing to plain rain by late morning. First guess is 0-to-4 inches (large range reflects large uncertainty) of snow and sleet accumulation before changing to freezing rain and then plain rain. Some ice accumulation is possible. I only expect a half inch or so of plain rain on the back end of this precipitation before a dry slot aloft shuts down all precipitation ahead of the advancing Arctic Front. Sunrise temperatures around 30 F rise to above freezing by noon on warming southeast winds. Rain showers, gradually taper off as dry air aloft shuts precipitation down until the arrival of the Arctic Front Friday morning. I expect about one-half inch of plain rain. Overnight, temps rise to 35 to 40 F until the Arctic Front sweeps through between 5 and 9 am. Hopefully that will melt any additional ice accretion (still some on vegetation from last weeks ice) and reduce wind damage to tree limbs. Upslope snow develops with the front's arrival. Strong snow squalls (thunder snow could occur in some spots) are possible with the frontal passage. New snow accumulations by 7 am Friday: 0-4 inches. Friday: Plunging temperatures falling from the 30's F to pre-dawn to 0 to minus 5 F by sunset! Strong winds with gusts to 50 to 60 MPH create dangerously low wind chills of -5 to -15 F. Upslope snow and strong winds could result in several hours of blizzard conditions Friday morning. Upslope could continue into Christmas Eve (Saturday). New snow accumulations by 7 am Saturday: 2-8 inches (large range reflects great uncertainty). Christmas Eve and Christmas Day: Some upslope snow possible into early Christmas Day. Low temps zero to minus 5 F. Highs 5 to 10 F. New snow accumulations by 7 am Sunday: Trace-to-4 inches (large range reflects great uncertainty). That puts the 3 day storm total snow accumulations at 2-to-16 inches (again, the huge range reflects my great uncertainty). FEARLESS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK: Moderating temperatures follow the gradual retreat of the Arctic air. Above freezing temperatures at cloud level by late week will reduce the chances of further snow through New Year's Weekend. I will keep pumping out updates as changing conditions warrant. Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman (aka: Bob Leffler)